After five years of total Mercedes dominance at Suzuka I expected no different in this year's qualifying. Conditions were dry, as the qualifying got underway, but there was a 60 % risk of rain. Everyone came out on the super-softs, and Hamilton set the benchmark right away. Sebastian was second, three tenths down on his title rival, followed by Bottas and Verstappen. On his second flyer Sebastian suddenly lost the grip and span, but luckily he managed to stay off the walls. Things were worse for Sauber's Ericsson, who went wide, losing control of his car and ending up into the wall. The session was red-flagged, when there were a bit less than ten minutes left in the clock. There was light drizzle already at the end of the first segment. The top three teams didn't need to come out for a second attempt. Williams' Stroll was a positive surprise, as the Canadian made it through to Q2. Once again Sauber's rising star Leclerc made an eye-catching job by making it P6 in the first segment. The biggest casualty in Q1 was Renault's Hulkenberg, who was the first man to be eliminated from the second segment. The elimination of Williams' Sirotkin and the McLaren duo of Alonso and Vandoorne was no surprise in the end.
Mercedes having been so dominant in the free practice sessions, everyone expected the Silver Arrows to opt for a different tyre strategy in Q2. This expection proved right. Mercedes sent their drivers out on the yellow-walled soft Pirellis, whilst Ferrari and Red Bull came out on the softest compound. In spite of the tyre choice, Bottas went fastest, edging his teammate by three thousandths of a second only. Sebastian was third, almost three tenths down on the Mercedes duo. Kimi was massive six tenths shy of the ultimate pace, although he had set his lap time on the softest rubber. It told everything about Mercedes' priority at Suzuka… The most unfortunate driver in Q2 was Red Bull's Ricciardo, who faced engine woes and was unable to set a lap time. It was a very frustrating day in the office for the Australian, who wasn't facing reliability issues for the first time this season! Towards the end of the second session the rain intensified. At first it was only raining lightly in the second sector, but soon the track had become so damp, that the conditions had turned slippery, and it became impossible for the drivers to improve their lap times. At the end of the session Sauber's Leclerc had a splashy 360-degree spin, but the talented Monegasque managed to maintain control of his C37. However, the future Ferrari star was the first driver to be knocked out of the final segment. In addition to Ricciardo and Leclerc, Haas' Magnussen, Renault's Sainz and Williams' Stroll were out of Q3. An interesting detail was, that Sainz, too had set his fastest lap on the soft rubber.
The conditions were quite challenging, as the final and decisive segment was kicked off. Which would be the right tyre choice? As there had been a shower of rain at the end of Q2, Ferrari sent their drivers out on the green-marked intermediate tyres. Mercedes and the other teams made a different tactical call, opting for the slicks. Ferrari's call turned out to be the wrong one, as the track was too dry for the intermediates. Both Kimi and Sebastian had to pit for slicks, losing valuable time. The wrong call had major consequences for the red-suited drivers. Everything didn't go as planned for Sebastian, who went wide on his first run, failing to set a competitive lap time. Hamilton took provisional pole by 0.299s to teammate Bottas. Verstappen was third, already 1.3s off Hamilton's pace. Kimi's first attempt was very tame as well, the Iceman being unbelievable 1.76s down on Hamilton. This definitely didn't seem to be Ferrari's day!
After the first runs the conditions took a turn to worse, as the rain intensified significantly. In the worsening track conditions Hamilton wasn't able to improve his benchmark on his second run. All drivers were in trouble on the slippery track. Kimi went wide in Turn 1, and teammate Sebastian was sliding all over the place... A much-telling fact is, that Hamilton was the only driver to be able to improve his lap time from Q2! A well-deserved 80th career pole for the Briton. Bottas made it a front row lock-out for the Silver Arrows. Verstappen benefitted from the Red Team's wrong tactical call and claimed P3. Kimi completed the second row for Ferrari. Haas' Grosjean made an impressive job in the mixed conditions, claiming P5. Toro Rosso succeeded well, too, as Hartley and Gasly qualified 6th and 7th. Force India's Ocon took P8 ahead of Sebastian, who was 4.4s off Hamilton's pace in the end! What a catastrophic session for Sebastian, who would have needed to qualify ahead of Hamilton to maximise his chances to close the gap in the drivers' championship standings!
Ferrari seem to be in serious trouble. In the free practice sessions the red team suffered from blistering rear tyres, whilst Mercedes were able to make the tyres last longer. Do you know days, when you wake up and everything starts to go wrong right from the beginning? Same seems to imply to Ferrari's hopes of winning the championship. Wrong tactical and strategic calls, mistakes by the drivers… Setbacks and difficulties seem to build up one after another. Changing the course will be extremely difficult.
Mercedes are starting to the race on the more durable rubber, which gives the Silver Arrows a strategic advantage. The red-suited drivers' chance lies on the race start. But Sebastian won't have it easy to climb up through the field… Nevertheless, I won't give up on hope. Sebastian has made a few mistakes this season, but it's not too late to turn the tables. I can only imagine the pressure that is on both the drivers and on the team, especially by the Italian media. Too much pressure is never good for the atmosphere in the team.
I hope my red-suited heroes make waking up early for the race worth it!
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